Methodik und Prozessgestaltung strategischer kommunaler Verkehrsplanungen : Anwendungsmöglichkeiten von systemdynamischen Modellen zur Bewertung kommunaler Verkehrsstrategien in der Planungspraxis
- Methodology and process design of strategic municipal traffic planning : applications of system dynamic models for the evaluation of municipal traffic strategies
Klönne, Marcus; Beckmann, Klaus J. (Thesis advisor)
Aachen : Publikationsserver der RWTH Aachen University (2008)
Dissertation / PhD Thesis
Aachen, Techn. Hochsch., Diss., 2008
As part of strategic municipal traffic planning involved specialist consultants need to evaluate the effects of traffic measures, which serves as the basis for decision making by participating parties when it comes to implementation. The downside to popular traffic demand models is that they only represent the impacts of structural and operational measures in the fields of road traffic and public transport. But the arrangements of supply-side measures, as e.g. bike and pedestrian traffic, consultant and informational measures, cannot be sufficiently modelled with that technique. Furthermore they only represent the impact of different measures in total and at a particular time. It is not possible - or only with huge efforts - to inference on the impact of single measures and to picture time-dependent changes. Additionally responsible consultants need not only work on technical tasks, but also support the planning process including the understandable presentation of the technical results to avoid misunderstandings and disputs between involved parties. Otherwise planning problems, delays in the progress and a widespread failure may be likely consequences. Within the scope of this research project one aim is to explore the potentials of system-dynamic modells to reduce the shown deficits that can be caused by the use of popular traffic demand models. An additional aim is to represent technical results in an understandable form. Based on a system dynamic model, the "Sensitivitätsmodell", a model of urban traffic is developed and as an example used to evaluate the impacts of municipal traffic strategies. The results of these modelled simulations are appraised with regard to possible statements and applications. Furthermore results of the Sensitivitätsmodell are compared with results of the strategic traffic planning process in the city of Düsseldorf found out by a traffic demand model, and strengths and weaknesses are disussed. A written survey adressing the "method and process of strategic municipal traffic planning" is conducted following the model-application and the comparison of both models. The results of this survey are evaluated and presented with a focus on the implementation of strategic traffic planning processes, its used instruments for traffic analysis and the design of participation procedures. Based on these results, requirements and potentials for the application of the Sensitivitätsmodell are derived and complimented by interviews with traffic planning experts. The results of the working steps clearly demonstrate the potentials of system dynamic models, e.g. the Sensitivitätsmodell, in the course of longterm municipal traffic planning. The application of the model is able to supplement and enrich the planning process. The specific benefit of this modell is shown when answering questions of how to identify and assess relevant cause-effect impacts in urban and traffic planning with relative marginal expenses. Based on the simulations the range of effectiveness of different combinations of measures can be rated qualitatively. Also the model allows an analysis of dynamic changes to evaluate the impacts of measures that are not representable using traffic demand models. Concerning this matter further research is needed regarding the consolidation, editing and presentation of technical results to build a decision basis for the traffic policy. Furthermore an additional benefit within the scope of the participation process is its ability to comprehensibly demonstrate traffic impacts and cause-effect impacts. The use of the model does not serve in the specific planning of any measures but rather in the preparation of higher-order, long-term guidelines and objectives and generates a reasonable extension of popular planning instruments. Questions regarding the integration and establishment of system dynamic models like the Sensitivitätsmodell as an additional instrument to strategic municipal traffic planning processes and the neccessary temporal, personal and financial expenses are not dealt with in detail by this research. In general it seems neccessary for a "successful" use of the model to perceive and accept the model as a step to formulate the mission statement and the planning objectives by all parties and evaluate the impacts of municipal traffic strategies qualitatively. This requires a high participation by municipal policy-makers as the development and use of the modell is essential to ensure a high acceptance of the results of the model and derived objectives and strategies.